Figures of this year’s voter turnout in phase three of Bihar’s assembly elections exceeded the polling figures from five years ago.
There were larger numbers of voters in the area that’s apparently more favourable to BJP. According to Saffron strategists, the BJP’s “change for development” angle has resonated well.
In the assembly polls of 2010, 20 out of the 50 constituencies were won by the BJP in the comparable round. 37 of these were led by the NDA in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.
It polled the same percentage of votes (42%) of in last year’s general elections as the RJD, JD(U) and the congress put together.
There’s little evidence of OBC voters being polarized against the BJP, even though Lalu Prasad used Mohan Bhagwat’s reservations remark to dub the BJP anti-quota.
Support seems to have been drawn from EBCs and Dalits by saffron candidates in the Arrah and Vaishali districts. This could help them strengthen the stable backing saffron challengers are receiving from the upper castes – Paswans, Vaishyas and Musahars.
The resentment among EBCs, trading castes and others who do not support the dominance enjoyed by the Yadavs during fifteen years of Lalu-Rabri rule, seems to be benefiting the BJP. Basically, the dread of “Jungle Raj 2” – Narendra Modi’s nickname for Yadav raj – seemed more tangible in constituencies that voted on Wednesday.
RJD reinforced the BJP’s stand in Arrah by giving an unequal number of tickets to Yadavs whose non-acceptance to share power with others isolated EBCs and pushed them into the arms of the BJP and Nitish Kumar.
Due to the fact the Nitish joined Lalu, the sections are wary of Yadav raj’s return and seem to be looking favourably at the BJP. What is key for the BJP’s bid to form a government in Patna is a good showing there. Accounts of a good showing appear to have restored BJP cadre’s confidence which had previously been hurt by the story about the party having a poor first round when 49 seats were up for grabs.
In the fourth round, saffron strategists are eager to do better. Out of the 55 seats in contention for on November 1, the BJP and the rival pair hold 26 each. The remaining seats belong to the others.
In order to offset any losses it may have suffered in round one, achieving big gains in these two rounds in key. The “secular” alliance is predicted to win big in the 57 seats of the previous round which recorded higher turnout from Yadavs and Muslims.