The break up of the PDP-BJP coalition would be turn out to be catastrophic for Jammu and Kashmir if any elections were to be held now. That is bearing in mind divorce usually tend to get quite ugly.
Both the two parties will be trying to maintain the higher threshold that has been known to be common to the two parties. BJP and PDP will both be on the defensive. They will end up using divisive issues just to make sure that their role in the government is maintained.
The “Agenda of Alliance” which the two parties have abandoned contains issues that are potentially divisive. The issues can polarize the country more than one can expect. It could be worse than in the 1983 assembly elections. It could pit the Kashmir supporters vs. the Jammu loyalist or the Muslim against the Hindu.
Let us not forget history so easily. The unfortunate events in 1983 and 1987 were caused majorly by the manner in which Kashmir was mishandled by the Center. Abdullah’s party parted ways in 1984 and his brother-in-law got the support of the Congress. That was followed by “Curfew raj” as protests took a center stage.
A few decades later, the Center is under intense suspense. A little act such as delaying funds could bring onboard a lot of trouble. Remembering the devastating floods of 2014, the issue becomes more emotive.
Emotions could be raised even higher if the repeated appeals from the late CM Mufti Sayeed were to be brought up in the campaign speeches. The situation becomes complicated since Prime Minister Modi rubbished the issue after Mufti made the remarks even on his death-bed. The PM said that he needed no one to advise him on how to handle Kashmir.
Power projects here have been handed over to the state. This may also become a conflicting issue. A lot of propaganda is ongoing concerning the natural resources being looted has dominated various conversations. What was agreed in the Agenda of Alliance was declined publicly by the Central Government.
Due to the sensitive of matters in the state, one can only wonder how serious the two sides were when they drafted the agreement. The implementation of the agreement, proving to be a challenge, has made the PDP president to seek for assurances. The Center is not willing to listen to Mufti Mehbooba.
The BJP on the other hand argues the agreement that was negotiated by BJP General Sec. The party will have a challenge facing some of its supporters in the Jammu region. The Agenda of Alliance had a promise that relief would be provided to (Hindus and Sikhs) that had taken refuge there as a result of the partition riots. Pakistan is now in control of Punjab.
The party, if it brings up the idea that Mufti thanked Pakistan to see to it that elections are conducted smoothly; secessionist sentiments will be boosted in the Valley. The release of Masarat Alam after his govt would not be good either.